As a media person who has been paying attention to the development of the optoelectronic industry for a long time, I have always believed that although the optoelectronic industry is a new and promising industry, it will inevitably be affected by the global economic environment. Therefore, it is necessary to pay some attention to the economic environment.
In August, global stock markets plummeted under the leadership of European and American stock markets. Originally, the fluctuations in the financial market are as natural as the ebb and flow of tides and the blooming and falling of flowers, but the recent ** drop is extraordinary: many days have risen and fallen by more than 2%; in less than 20 days, many stock markets have fallen by about 15%. Just three days without any major movement, on August 18, European and American stock markets plummeted by more than 4%. The German stock market, Europe's largest economy, fell by nearly 6%, and fell by about 25% in 20 days.
　　
　　As the stock market plummeted, there were several noteworthy developments: (1) Despite the downgrade, U.S. Treasury bond sales were strong, with the 10-year bond yield hitting a record low today - 1.98%; (2) Despite a 22% increase in margin requirements in the Chicago futures market, gold prices have continued to rise to new highs, breaking through $1,881 per ounce today, while oil prices have plummeted, falling nearly 6% on the 18th alone; (3) Despite the ban on short selling, the decline in the German DAX has led to a sell-off in the entire European market; (4) The stocks of all European and American banks and financial institutions have fallen by about 30% since August 1.
　　
　　All this is related to the increasing possibility of a second bottom in the global economy, although Morgan Stanley analysts lowered their global economic growth forecast from 4.2% in 2011 to 3.9% in a report late Wednesday. And from 4.5% in 2012 to 3.8%. The forecast for developed countries was lowered from 2.4% to 1.5%. However, according to the actual economic performance in the second quarter of 2011, the GDP growth rate of the United States was 1.3, Germany was 0.1%, and France was 0%. Now many analysts believe that there is a 25% chance that the European and American economies will enter a recession in 2012, because Germany and France are the first and second largest economies in Europe. However, 40% of Germany's exports are within the EU. If the third and fourth largest economies, Spain and Italy, fall, Germany will also be doomed. What's more troublesome is that with the United States and Europe heavily in debt and the European debt crisis not resolved, and interest rates already at zero, if the economy hits the bottom twice, it will take a long time to get out of the trough. In a globalized world, no country can keep itself clean. China looks good on the surface, but if the world hits the bottom twice, low growth and high inflation will be the prospects for China's economy in the next few years.
　　
　　The most critical period for the global economy will be the fourth quarter of 2011 and the first quarter of 2012, when fiscal and monetary policy stimulus from various countries will expire, and whether there will be a second bottoming out will also be determined.